INTRODUCTION

CONSEQUENCES OF THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION

extreme high dry bulb temperatures		prolonged drought
uncontrolled wild fires		insect infestations
winter ice road failure		permafrost melting
loss of seasonal snow packs		lack of summer irrigation water
flash floods		violent storms
sea level rise		fish stock collapse
high wet bulb temperatures		uncontrolled human migration
CO2 toxicity

 

UNCONTROLLED HUMAN MIGRATION
There is already uncontrolled human migration away from low elevation
tropical countries and toward higher elevation temperate countries.
Each new migrant stresses existing accommodation, infrastructure
and public services.
 

POLITICAL PROCRASTINATION:
Political leaders who fail to take climate change mitigation seriously have already
squandered Earth's former good climate. A fossil carbon tax is essential, but
provides little climate benefit if consumers cannot access economic clean energy.

Continuing failure to mitigate climate change will eventually lead to a climate similar to
that during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 56 million years ago. The adverse
climate during the PETM caused extinction of almost all large land animals.

There must be much better appreciation of the enormity of the measures
necessary to mitigate CO2 driven climate change.
 

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SLIDE #3 - HARD FACTS I

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a)i) Historically the atmospheric CO2 concentration naturally oscillated between 180 ppm
and 280 ppm with a period of about 100,000 years.
ii) Circa 1800 the atmospheric CO2 concentraion was about 275 ppm.
iii) An atmospheric CO2 concentration > 200 ppm is essential for agriculture;
iv) An atmospheric CO2 concentration of ~ 550 ppm causes a 3 degree C increase in atmospheric
temperature exclusive of the atmospheric temperature rise due to change in albedo;
v) For sustained health humans need an atmospheric CO2 concentration < 1000 ppm;
vi) An atmospheric CO2 concentration of > 10,000 ppm causes humans to gasp for fresh air;
vii) An atmospheric CO2 concentration of > 40,000 ppm is lethal for humans.

b) Up until about the year 1800 natural processes sequestered fossil CO2 as fast as
mankind produced it.

c) CO2 is a very stable low energy state chemical compound. All methods of
sequestering CO2 require additinal energy.

d) During natural sequestration of CO2 the addional energy is provided by sunlight via photosynthesis;

e) The dependence of natural CO2 sequestration on sunlight limits the maximum rate of natural
CO2 sequestration;

f) Today mankind is producing fossil CO2 more than 1000X faster than natural processes can sequester it;

g) Today the atmospheric CO2 concentration is 425 ppm and is rising at about 2.5 ppm / year.

h) If mankind continues to combust fossil fuels humans will eventually die, if not due to climate
change then due to CO2 toxicity.

i) The only solution to this rising CO2 concentration problem, consistent with continued existence of
the human species, is for mankind to totally replace fossil fuel supplied energy with clean energy.
 

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SLIDE #4 - HARD FACTS II

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j) After fossil fuel extraction is totally stopped it will take natural processess more than
100,000 years to sequester the present excess CO2.

k) Fossil fuels presently provide an average thermal power of about 21,000 GWt.

l) The equivalent base load electricity generation capacity is about 7000 GWe

m) Absent large amounts of efficient electricl energy storage, due to AC electricity grid
stability requirements only about 20% of this average power (1400 GWe)can be supplied by
intermittent renewable electricity generation;

n) In most jurisdictions seasonal electrical energy storage is prohibitively expensive;

o) Most of the remaining required clean energy must come from nuclear power;

p) Existing water cooled nuclear reactors are too fuel inefficient to sustainably
mitigate climate change;

q) Breeder reactors with Pu-239 fissile and fuel reprocessing are required to
sustainably mitigate climate change;

r) To economically meet the urban heating requirement piped low temperature
district heating is required with a heat pump in each terminal building.

s) Due to combined past political intransigence and incompetence, later this
century there likely will not be enough Pu-239 to meet projected human
requirements.

t) Later this century it may be necessary to reduce the human population
to be consistent with the available clean power.

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3) SLIDE #5 - HISTORIC OSCILLATING TEMPERATURE SUMMARY SLIDE:

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Climate change is a result of changes in planet Earth's incident, reflected, absorbed and emitted radiant energy flows.

These changes are linked to oscillations in average ocean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Glacier ice cores provide data with respect to past atmospheric CO2 concentration oscillation, as shown on the lowest graphs in Figure 1.

Albedo = A = [(reflected power) / (incident power)]

Temperature-Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Connection:
A changing ocean temperature changes the amount of CO2 dissolved in the ocean which, due to a constant overall CO2 mass, changes the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.
As the ocean temperature rises from 0 degrees C to 30 degrees C the amount of CO2 in ocean solution drops from 100% to about 40%.
Ref__________

Experimental data gathered during atmospheric nuclear bomb testing indicates that the ocean CO2 concentration follows changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration with a time constant of 10 to 15 years.
 

Temperature-Albedo Connection:
As the ocean temperature falls ice forms which increases the planetary albedo and reduces solar power absorption,.
As the solar power absorption decreases the ocean temperature falls giving positive feedback.

As the ocean temperature rises ice melts which reduces planetary albedo and increases solar power absorption.<
> As the solar power absorption increases the ocean temperature rises giving positive feedback.
 

Temperature-Infrared emission Connection
In a certain infrared photon frequency range, within the thermal emission band, CO2 molecules in Earth's upper atmosphere reflect back a fraction of the photons that are emitted by freezing water molecules in the lower atmosphere. These back reflected photons are reabsorbed by Earth.

As the ocean temperature rises the atmospheric CO2 concentration rises due to CO2 coming out of ocean solution.
As the atmospheric CO2 concentration rises the ocean temperature rises due to reduced infrared radiation emission.

As the ocean temperature falls the atmospheric CO2 concentration falls due to atmospheric CO2 going into ocean solution.
As the atmospheric CO2 concentration falls the ocean temperature falls due to increased infrared radiation emission.
 

As shown by the bottom graph of Figure 1, for at least the 800,000 years prior to mankind, planet Earth experienced the ocean temperature swings of ice ages, which were accompanied by atmospheric CO2 concentration oscillations between a low of 180 ppm and a high 280 ppm. The period of each temperature and CO2 cocentration cycle was about 100,000 years. Positive feedback for these oscillations was provided by temperature driven changing albedo and CO2 driven changing infrared radiation emission.
 

Excursion Maximum Limits The planetary albedo can reasonably swing from 0.1 with no ice to 0.4 with extensive ice coverage.
The ocean temperature can reasonably swing from 0 deg C to 30 deg C.
The atmospheric CO2 concentration can reasonably swing from 180 ppm to 550 ppm
 

Normal Oscillation Direction Switch
At high temperatures photosynthesis reduces the atmospheric CO2 concentration providing negative atmospheric CO2 concentration feedback:
At low temperatures biomass decay increases the atmospheric CO2 concentration providing negative atmospheric CO2 concentration feedback.
 

Normal Oscillation Excursion Limits:
The atmospheric CO2 concentration, atmospheric and the albedo normally slowly oscillate together causing periodic temperature oscillations.
From Figure 1 we can see that absent the intervention of mankind these mechanisms caused a natural CO2 concentration swing of about 100 ppm
from 180 ppm to 280 ppm.

From Figure 1, bottom graph, the fastest natural recovery rate from a high CO2 concentration is 100 ppm / 40,000 years = 1 ppm / 400 years.

Within each 100,000 year period there were CO2 concentration sub-oscillations caused by proximity of other planets, particuarly Jupiter, which affects the orbit of Earth and hence its incident solar power.

Note that dust accumulation on the ice would also cause ice melting, contributing to the positive feedback.

STEP INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONCENTRATION:
The serious problem faced by mankind today is unbridled combustion of fossil fuels that is increasing the concentration of CO2 in Earth's upper atmosphere about 1000X faster than in the past, which is causing Earth's lower atmosphere temperature to rapidly increase. This increase in lower atmosphere temperature is melting Earth's reflective ice cover, which further decreases the planetary albedo increases the fraction of the incident solar power absorbed by Earth, causing a further temperature increase.

An important issue to be determined is the maximum size of the corresponding temperature excursion.

In recent years mankind has added another (425 -275) = 150 ppm to the atmospheric CO2 concentration and a corresponding amount to the ocean. That CO2 injection will change the range of the average ocean temperature swing which is of immediate concern to people living today. By the year 2070 the CO2 concentrtion swing will likely be:
(550 - 275) = 275 ppm.

Solubility data for CO2 in seawater indices that a transition from 180 ppm to 280 ppm corresponds to a 30 degree C temperature swing.

However, the problem is not just the high CO2 concentration. The main problem is the rate of rise of CO2 concentration. Presently CO2 is being injected into Earth's atmosphere at 2.5 ppm / year = 1000X faster than the photosynthesis sequestration rate of (1 / 400) ppm / year. Hence it is impossible to change the sign of dT / dt until thousands of years from now, long after the CO2 concentration goes to its extreme maximum value and albedo goes to its extreme minimum value.

This is a positive feedback process that, if permitted to continue, will likely eventually melt Earth's entire ice cover, causing: a decrease in planetary albedo from about 30% to about 10%, an increase in average lower atmosphere temperature of about a 17.5 degree C and extinction of almost all large land animals.

Mankind is presently producing CO2 by combustion of fossil fuels more than 1000X faster than natural processes limited by photosynthesis can sequester CO2. From the perspective of mankind the only solution to this high temperature problem is to completely cease combustion of fossil fuels. Even after fossil CO2 emissions totally cease, many millennia will pass before Earth's climate naturally returns to its pre-industrial CO2 concentration.

If mankind fails to stop injection of fossil CO2 into the atmosphere the temperature will rise until mankind is eliminated, in which case the CO2 injection will stop, permitting photosynthesis to eventually restore the normal atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Now assume that the CO2 concentration in the upper atmosphere is suddenly increased. In order for the infrared radiation power that is emitted into deep space to remain equal to the absorbed solar radiation power, in the presence of excess CO2 in the upper atmosphere, the infrared photon production rate in the lower atmosphere must increase, which means that the temperature of Earth's lower atmosphere must increase.

The effect of a step increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is to cause a rapid increase in ocean surface temperature. This increase in ocean surface temperature melts floating ice, decreasing the system planetary albedo. The decrease in planetary albedo leads to more heat absorption by the ocean and hence a further increase in ocean surface temperature. This rapid ocean heating continues until the ocean temperature matches the dry land temperature plus the increment in temperature due to the change in albedo.

Photosynthesis will now act to gradually reduce the above normal CO2 concentration at a rate limited by photosynthesis. When the CO2 concentration is low enough the air will cool, eventually cooling the ocean surface. Ice will start to reform. Positive feedback from the change in albedo will now drive formation of more ice. The lower temperature will reduce photosynthesis causing the CO2 concentration to stop decreasing. After some time, due to surface dust accumulation, the albedo of the ice will decrease and due to reduced photosynthesis the CO2 concentration will gradually increae and the oscillation will repeat.
 

ADDITIONAL ISSUES
Photosynthesis normally increases with increasing ocean temperature. We rely on this proportionality to stop the atmospheric CO2 concentration and hence the temperature rising. However, if the temperature gets too high biomass growth will no longer occur. Hence there is nothing to stop the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the temperature from rising out of control by 17.5 C.

Earth's average emission temperature is normally regulated by a long term balance between solar radiant power absorbed by Earth and net infrared radiant power emitted by Earth.

However, if there is a CO2 mass injection it will cause an ocean heat absorption which may further increase the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The temperature rises out of control causing all the ice to melt. Hence albedo becomes 0.1. Hence the temperature increment becomes
17.5 degrees C.

As long as photosynthesis can occur eventually the system will recover from a large CO2 injection.. However, if the system becomes too hot for photosynthesis (dT / dt) cannot change sign and like the planet Venus the system will be trapped in a high temperature excursion.

The mechanism by which of most of Earth's emitted infrared photons are generated is water molecules in the lower atmosphere that transition from liquid to ice.
 

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EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE:

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4) SLIDE #6 - FIGURE 1

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Figure 1 - Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Versus Time

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5) As shown in the lower graph of Figure 1, analysis of air bubbles trapped in glacier ice cores shows that for at least 800,000 years prior to the year 1940 the atmospheric CO2 concentration remained in the range 170 to 300 ppm, with a pre-industrial revolution value of about 275 ppm.
Note that the fastest historical rate at which natural processes sequestered CO2 was about:
100 ppm / 40,000 years = (1 / 400) ppm / year

6) In the middle graph of Figure 1 the blue line shows the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the black line shows CO2 emissions. During the 1950s the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 315 ppm.

7) The upper graph of Figure 1 confirms the 315 ppm value for 1958 and shows that presently, in 2024, the atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 425 ppm and is rising at about 2.5 ppm per year. The recent data trend indicates that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 550 ppm by 2070, twice its historic value.

8) Thus, if by magic all fossil fuel consumption was stopped today the time required for natural processes to restore the atmospneric CO2 concentration to its former value of 275 ppm is:
(425 ppm - 275 ppm)/ [(1 / 400) ppm / year] = 400 X 150 year = 60,000 years.

9) Clearly any fossil CO2 injected into Earth's atmosphere by a civilization remains in the atmosphere for the life of that civilization.

10) By 1970, it was immediately obvious to an informed person that the continuing accumulation of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere would, within a few human generations, prevent continuing human existence on planet Earth. Quite apart from climate change, the CO2 concentration itself would eventually become toxic to humans.

11) It is well known from operating experience with submarines and manned spacecraft that in a closed system it is essential to continuously remove CO2 from air. Most such closed systems are designed to keep the CO2 concentration under 1000 ppm. At 10,000 ppm there are major human consequences and at 40,000 ppm there is 100% human mortality.

12) The right hand side of the upper graph of Figure 1 shows that in recent years mankind has totally failed to slow the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.

13) Interpreting this data is simple. Two hundred fifty years ago, when Earth's population was less than 1 billion people, natural processes could sequester CO2 from the atmosphere as fast as mankind produced CO2 by combustion of fossil fuels (then primarily surface coal). However, today, as Earth's human population exceeds 8 billion, mankind produces fossil CO2 about:<
(2.5 ppm / year) / [(1 / 400) ppm / year] = 1000X faster than natural processes can sequester it.
 

FACING REALITY
14) At this point it is necessary to point out that almost all government and fossil fuel industry claims with respect to projected reductions in CO2 emission rates are misleading NONSENSE. The only data that can be relied upon is actual third party atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. Reducing the measured atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a sustained 2000X reduction in the rate of fossil fuel extraction and combustion.

15) Building more fossil fuel infrastructure such as pipelines will not prevent further future CO2 emission nor will storing compressed CO2 underground. A fundamental problem is that CO2 is a very low energy state chemical compound, In order to change CO2 into any stable form that is suitable for permanent sequestration requires additional energy.

16) Nature relies on solar energy conveyed via photosynthesis to provide the energy increment required for CO2 sequestration. However, trees provide little permanent CO2 sequestration because when they decay they usually release their accumulated trapped carbon back into the atmosphere.

17) The major long term natural CO2 removal processes are bio-matter accumulations that are trapped in lake and swamp bottoms and shell forming ocean plankton. The trapped bio-matter eventually anaerobically decays into fossil fuels. After death, Plankton shells sink to the bottom of the ocean where they become ocean bottom carbonate dust that eventually consolidates into carbonate rock. These processes are rate limited by sunlight which provides the energy increment required for CO2 sequestration.

18) After fossil CO2 emissions are totally stopped, natural processes will take many millennia to restore Earth's former good climate.

19) Today most of the CO2 produced by combustion of fossil fuels is either stored in the atmosphere, which raises the atmospheric CO2 concentration or is dissolved in the ocean, which lowers the ocean pH. Both of these interim CO2 storage processes have serious adverse life altering consequences.

20) Solving the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration problem requires complete halting of fossil fuel extraction. Parties who claim otherwise are simply burying their heads in the sand. Moreover, it is not sufficient to simply displace our own use of fossil fuels. We will not achieve atmospheric CO2 concentration reduction and hence climate change mitigation unless we also stop fossil fuel extraction by less affluent parties in foreign lands. In this matter we must develop cost effective technologies for sustained complete fossil fuel displacement both at home and abroad. To plan for less is to plan to fail.
 

RADIANT ENERGY EXCHANGE
21) Any warm object will emit electromagnetic photons which are tiny packets of energy. The mechanism of this photon creation is coupling of electric charge in the object to molecular kinetic energy transitions. Each photon propagates at the speed of light C and has a frequency F characteristic of its energy Ep.

22) This process is reversible. That is, an external source of photons can excite electric charge and hence coupled molecules to higher energies. Thus an isolated object in a vacuum chamber will emit and absorb photons until its rate of radiant energy absorption equals its rate of radiant energy emission, at which point we say that the object is at the same temperature as the surrounding vacuum chamber wall.

23) The temperature of a warm object suspended in a vacuum gradually approaches the temperature of its surroundings by exchange of thermal radiation energy (photons) with its surroundings. As an object's temperature decreases the center frequency of its emitted photon spectrum decreases and its rate of photon emission decreases.

24) The rate at which an object in a vacuum emits radiant heat is proportional to [K T^4] where:
T = absolute temperature in degrees Kelvin
and
K = a constant.

25) If the object's surface is shiny K is small. If the object's surface is flat black, K is large.
 

RADIANT POWER BALANCE:
26) Earth's climate is a result of physical processes involving a balance between partial absorption of solar radiation, heat accumulation and emission of thermal infrared radiation.

27) Planet Earth has existed for billions of years during which time a near balance was reached between solar radiation absorption and infrared radiant heat emission, so that prior to the industrial revolution the temperature was stable and the net heat accumulation was zero. During the last century there has been a small increase in radiant energy absorption and a larger decrease in radiant heat emission, both of which have contributed to net heat accumulation and an average temperature increase.
 

ALBEDO

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28) SLIDE #7 - FIGURE 2

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Figure 2 - Earth in 1972 as viewed from outer space via reflected solar illumination.

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29) Notice that in the warm equatorial region there are few ice crystals resulting in lower local solar reflectivity (albedo) and higher local solar power absorption whereas closer to the south pole the ice crystals are very dense causing higher local solar reflectivity and lower local solar power absorption. The reflected light is known as Earth Shine.

30) Measurements of Earthshine give:
A = [(reflected power) / (incident Power)] = 0.294 t0 0.306,
where A is known as planetary albedo. Due to the seasonality and wavelength range (0.3 um to 3 um) of Earthshine it is difficult to obtain a more accurate value over a short measurement period (2 years). However, the long term trend is for the average value of Earthshine to gradually decrease over time. The effect of this planetary albedo (AKA bond albedo) decrease on temperature is large.
 

CHANGE IN PLANETARY ALBEDO;
31) However, there is another important issue. Earth's temperature and heat accumulation are in part set by the fraction (1 - A) of incident solar power that is absorbed, which fraction, up to this point, has assumed to be constant.

32) As earlier indicated, about 30% of the incident solar radiation is reflected back into space. As is apparent in Figure 2 this reflected fraction of the incident solar radiation, is dependent on the fraction of Earth's surface that is covered by optically reflective ice. As the lower atmosphere temperature rises this ice will progressively melt starting at lower latitudes and gradually progressing toward higher latitudes.

33) In the long term this decrease in albedo caused by ice melting is a major threat to mankind.

34) When all the ice has melted the increase in lower atmosphere temperature due to a change in planetary albedo from 0.30 to 0.10 is 17.5 degrees C. That average temperature increase will be lethal for most large land animals.
 

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CONSEQUENCE OF CHANGE IN ALBEDO
Fi = solar power flux incident on planet Earth;
Fr = solar power flux reflected off planet Earth;
A = (Fr / Fi) = Planetary albedo A;
(Fi – Fr) = Fi (1 – A) = solar power flux absorbed by planet Earth;

Planck showed that emitted thermal radiation power = [K T^4]
when an individual photon's energy Ep is:
Ep = h F
where:
T = the absolute temperature in degrees kelvin
K is a factor that is nearly constant but that for planet Earth is slightly dependent on the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
h = Planck constant
F = frequency

Over thousands of years the surface temperature of planet Earth has become nearly constant with time implying that to a good approximation:
absorbed power = emitted power
or
Fi (1 – A) = K T^4

Injection of CO2 into the atmosphere reduces K. If Fi and A are both constant,
as K decreases, T increases.

Albedo A is proportional to the fraction of Earth's surface covered by highly reflective snow and ice. As A decreases due to ice melting, temperature T increases.

Consider a change in albedo of 0.01:
A will decrease from about 0.30 to 0.29. Thus:
[Fi (1 - 0.30)] / [Fi (1 - 0.29)] = K (T1)^4 / K (T2)^4
or
(0.7 / 0.71) = (T1 / T2)^4
or
T2 / T1 = (0.71 / 0.7)^0.25
or
T2 - T1 = T1 [(0.71 / 0.7)^0.25 - 1]
= T1 [0.003552454]

For T1 = 270 degreees K: (T2 - T1) = 0.959 degrees C

Note that the temperature is very sensitive to the value of A.

As Earth warms A will decrease from about 0.30 to about 0.10. Thus:
[Fi (1 - 0.30)] / [Fi (1 - 0.10)] = K (T1)^4 / K (T2)^4
or
(0.7 / 0.9) = (T1 / T2)^4
or
T2 / T1 = (0.9 / 0.7)^0.25
or
T2 - T1 = T1 [(0.9 / 0.7)^0.25 - 1]
= T1 [0.06484]

For T1 = 270 degreees K: (T2 - T1) = 17.5 degrees C

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36) The parameters K and A are presently both decreasing. There is positive feedback. If we fail to stop this decrease the corresponding rise in Earth surface temperature will doom all large land animals and many marine species.

37) About 56 million years ago, during a period known as the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) the isotope record shows that all the ice melted.

38) Remember that the 29.7% figure was an average over the entire Earths surface. The local value of albedo varies widely from about 4% over open ocean to as much as 70% over dry land covered by fresh snow. In places such as Canada, Russia and the nordic countries, where there is seasonal snow cover for (1 / 3) to (2 /3) of each year, a small change in average temperature caused by CO2 results in a relatively large change in average local albedo. In Canada this effect increases the CO2 driven change in average temperature 2X to 3X, which has had huge consequences on permafrost melting, tree species insect infestations and forest fires.

39) Absent injection of fossil CO2 into the atmosphere, the parameters A and K exhibit the natural low level oscillation associated with ice age glaciation.
 

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40) SLIDE #9 - EQUATION SLIDE - Properties of Water

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If one kg of liquid water at initially at 0 degrees C is heated to 100 degrees C the required amount of heat is:
1000 gm / kg X (1 cal / gm deg C) X 100 deg C X 4.18 J / cal
= 4.18 X10^5 J / kg
= 418 kJ / kg

If 1 kg of liquid water, initially at 100 degrees C, is further heated to convert the entire mass to water vapor the amount of heat required, known as the latent heat of vaporization, is 2257 KJ / kg.

The number of water molecules in 1 kg of water is:
(1000 gm / kg) X (6.023 X 10^23 molecules / 18 gm) = 0.3346 X 10^26 molecules / kg

Thus the latent heat of fusion can be expressed as:
[334 kJ / kg] / [0.3346 X 10^26 molecules / kg] = 998.2 X 10^-26 KJ / molecule

Assume that while water freezes it emits 1 infrared photon per molecule frozen.
 

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41) SLIDE #10 -PHOTON EQUATIONS SLIDE

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A photon's energy Ep is given by:
Ep = h F
where:
h = 6.626 X 10^-34 joule second = Planck constant.
and
F = photon frequency

Hence if the photon frequency F is known the photon energy Ep can be calculated and vice versa.

Note that photons of higher frequency have higher energy than photons of lower frequency.

If the molecular phae change is from water molecules initially at 0 degrees C to ice at zero degrees C the latent heat of fusion can be expressed as:
F / C = Ep / (h C)
= [(998.2 X 10^-26 kJ / molecule) X (1 molecule / photon) X (1000J / kJ)]
/ [(6.626 X 10-34 J - s) X (2.997 X 10^10 cm / s)]
= [(998.2 X 10^-26) X (1000)] / [(6.626 X 10-34) X (2.997 X 10^10 cm)]
= 502.66 cm^-1

At the instant of water molecule energy transition the water molecules have ranges of initial and final energies. Hence the emitted photons occupy a band of (F / C) values around the calculated average value.
 

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INFRARED RADIATION EMITTED BY PLANET EARTH
42) A spectrometer is an instrument that can graphically display and record emitted photon intensity versus photon frequency.

43) Note that the area under an infrared spectral curve is proportional to the net emitted infrared radiant power.

44) As shown earlier herein, because a photon's frequency (or wave number) is proportional to its energy, we can tell a lot about what is going on in Earth's atmosphere by mounting a suitable infrared spectrometer in a spacecraft and recording the actual net infrared photon spectrum emitted by planet Earth.
 

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45) SLIDE #11 - FIGURE 3

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Figure 3 - 1996 Thermal Emission Spectrum of Planet Earth

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46) Figure 3 shows an experimentally measured thermal emission spectral curve and two theoretical Planck curves for planet Earth. A Planck curve is the theoretical infrared emission from an ideal black body at a particulr temperature. Notice that as the temperature increases the peak in the Planck curves moves upward toward higher radiant intensity and to the right toward a higher center frequency. That behavior corresponds to every day experience where the hotter an object is the more radiant heat that it emits and the higher is the emission center frequency.

47) Notice that in Figure 3 the horizontal axis is labelled Wave Number.
(Wave Number) = (Frequency) / (Speed of Light in cm / s).

48) Earth's infrared emission spectrum shows that the emission peak in the (F / C) range is:
close to 503 cm^-1,at the expected emission photon frequency for freezing water droplets.

49) At the instant of each energy transitions the water molecules have variable initial and final energies. Hence the emitted photons occupy a band of frequencies round the emission peak.
 

HEAT TRANSPORT PROCESS:
50) Solar energy that is absorbed by the ocean causes evaporation of ocean water.

51) Isolated water molecules (water vapor) have a lower molecular weight (H2O = 18) than either oxygen (O2 = 32) or nitrogen (N2 = 28) molecules and due to their relative buoyancy isolated H2O molecules tend to migrate upward in Earth's atmosphere. However, as they rise in the atmosphere these water molecules impact other air molecules and gradually lose energy to these other air molecules. They then continue cooling. In so doing they emit photons that convey the latent heat of fusion of water toward outer space.

52) In clouds the photon emitting water droplets become ice particles. The snow flakes are denser than air and hence fall. As they fall they are reheated to become water droplets and carried upwards by other warmer air molecules and the cycle repeats. Thewate droplets/snow flakes fall to ground when there is insufficient solar energy to carry them up.
 

GREEN HOUSE GAS WARMING:
53) There is a further complication. Between the tops of clouds, where most ot the emitted photons originate and deep space is Earth's upper atmophere which contains CO2. Right in the middle of the H2O thermal emission frequency band is a CO2 molecular vibration frequency band that reflects infrared radiation back toward Earth.

54) The area under a graph of emitted radiant intensity versus frequency is the total emitted radiant power.

55) When photons pass through a gas there are characteristic photon frequencies at which the gas molecules reflect incident photons back toward the radiation source. From the perspective of a distant spectrometer this back reflection produces dark lines on the apparent photon emission spectrum.

56) Consider a planet that is constantly heated by absorbed solar radiation. Assume that the planet has existed for millions of years, so that its internal temperature profile is stable. Conservation of energy requires that the planet emit into deep space a thermal radiation power equal to its absorbed solar power.

57) If the planet has no atmosphere its thermal emission power is independent of altitude and is equal to the absorbed solar power.

58) Now assume that the Earth has added to its atmosphere gases that in certain frequency bands reflect backwards thermal infrared photons. From the perspective of an observer in outer space Earth's thermal infrared emission spectrum will have corresponding dark bands.

59) In late 1996 the spacecraft named Mars Global Surveyor recorded the far infrared spectrum of planet Earth. That data is shown in Figure 3.

60) In Figure 3 the horizontal axis, labelled Wavenumber, is the infrared photon frequency divided by the speed of light in cm / sec. The black line is a graph of the received infrared intensity as a function of wavenumber (frequency).

61) The area under the black line is proportional to the total thermal infrared power emitted by Earth. In the middle of this graph is a large notch due to CO2 in Earth's upper atmosphere. That notch is wider today because this data was acquired in 1996 and since then there has been further CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere.

62) At higher photon frequencies there is an obvious notch due to O3 and further to the right is a broad notch due to methane.

63) The immediate effect of a GHG induced dark bands is to reduce the area under the radiated power versus frequency curve which means an immediate reduction in emitted thermal power.

64) However, the Law of Conservation of energy requires that over dry land the total area under the graph of the emitted photon power versus frequency must be equal to the absorbed solar power, which is independent of the concentration of GHG gases.

65) This apparent contradiction is resolved by the excess solar energy flux raising Earth's dry ground surface temperature, which moves the entire emitted infrared photon power versus frequency curve upwqrds until the area under this curve again matches the absorbed solar power.

66) In summary, atmospheric gases that back reflect photons at thermal infrared emission frequencies cause an increase in Earth's dry ground surface temperature. Such gases are known as "Green House Gases (GHGs)" and the corresponding increase in temperature is known as the "Green House Effect".

67) Using the experimental far infrared spectrum recorded by a spacecraft one can easily calculate the corresponding spectrum for the special case of doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. One finds that doubling of the CO2 concentration with no change in albedo causes an increase in Earth dry ground surface temperature of about 3 degrees C. A further doubling of the CO2 concentration causes another 3 degrees C temperature increase.
 

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68) SLIDE #12 - FIGURE 4 - Earth Thermal Emission Spectrum

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Figure 4 - Earth Thermal Emission Spectrum

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69) In 2005 another spacecraft recorded the higher resolution thermal infrared emission spectrum for planet Earth shown in Figure 4.
 

CO2 SUMMARY:
70) The unfortuanate coincidence of the CO2 infrared photon reflection frequncy with the H2O photon emission frequency leads to a situation where the climate is quite sensitive to the CO2 concentration in Earth's upper atmosphere. This situation is aggravated by the large change in solar reflectivity between ice and water and by the fact that all natural processes for permanently removing CO2 from the atmosphere are slow as compared to the rate at which CO2 is being produced via combustion of fossil fuels. The only long term solution to this problem consistent with maintaining a large human population on Earth is stopping all extraction and combustion of fossil fuels.

71) Let me summarize this whole matter bluntly. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is 425 ppm today. At 2.5 ppm per year it will reach 550 ppm in:
125 ppm / (2.5 ppm / year) = 50 years.

72) If present fossil fuel use trends continue that 2.5 ppm per year rise in CO2 concentration will over the next few decades gradually increase to about 5 ppm per year, reducing the CO2 concentration rise time to 550 ppm to about 33 years. If you fail to act now, in about 33 years time the average temperature over much of Canada will be 6 to 9 degrees C higher than the preindustrial reference. If you think that we have a wildfire problem now, you have seen nothing yet.
 

OTHER CO2 EFFECTS:
73) There is another important CO2 effect that has received little explicit public recognition. When CO2 is added to the atmosphere over dry land the land surface temperature almost immediately rises to make the infrared (IR) power emission balance the solar power absorption. Hence there is little heat absorption by dry land.

74) However, when CO2 is added to the atmosphere over ocean water there is little immediate water temperature rise but there is ongoing heat absorption by the water equal to the difference between the solar radiant power flux and the infrared radiant power flux. This net heat absorption melts floating ice and leads to gradual ocean warming that in turn raises the wet bulb temperature and enables major ocean storms.
 

CONSEQUENCES:
75) In the near term a major consequence of the wet bulb temperature rise will be massive human migration from the tropics toward more temperate countries. Already the USA and Europe are not able to control immigration via their southern borders and the situation will become much worse during the decades to come.

76) In the tropics the ocean surface temperature is consistently well over 20 degrees C. At 35 degrees C people die because the humdity is so high that their bodies cannot cool by evaporating perspiration.

77) I remind you that desperate people do desperate things. From a moral perspective tropical residents believe that they have been wronged by the developed world's unbridled use of fossil fuels, so from their perspective you deserve whatever they do to you.

78) Whether or not the human species survives this century will depend on whether or not humans are smart enough to deploy enough fuel sustainable nuclear power capacity to stop the gradual heat accumulation before the ocean temperature becomes overwhelmingly too hot.

79) Based on present human behavior, I am not optimistic. Sustainable climate change mitigation is nowhere near the top of the political agenda. Too many people believe, perhaps for religious reasons, that humans can adapt to this climate change. These people do not understand the thermal physics, and if they continue to deny reality they and their followers are doomed.

FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY DENIAL:
80) By 1980 early thermal neutron nuclear power reactors had been field proven and around the world about 400 such power reactors were either committed or built with a total thermal output of about 1200 GWt.

81) Circa 1985 the fossil fuel industry realized that nuclear power was an existential threat to fossil fuel energy market share and attempted to make nuclear power economically unviable by lobbying governments in both Canada and the USA. This lobbying took the form of public scare tactics, unreasonable regulation of nuclear power, funding of political parties that promoted use of fossil fuels in preference to nuclear power and dissemination of falsehoods about climate change and nuclear energy.

82) In response to the fossil fuel industry lobby, during the 1990s the USA adopted a pro-fossil fuel policy, in which parties who challenged that policy with contrary facts had their employment terminated. One of the worst offenders was Bill Clinton, who changed clean air laws and who terminated the highly successful multi-billion dollar US fast breeder reactor development program. Similar politics occurred in France. Today the main beneficiaries of that US development program are Russia, China and to a lesser extent, India.
 

83) In Canada the Harper government formed the Nuclear Waste Management Organization NWMO) which with generous public funding is standing in the way of implementation of fuel efficient Fast Neutron Reactors in Canada.
 

THE NUCLEAR SOLUTION
84) Today world wide combustion of fossil fuels (natural gas, natural gas liquids, oil, coal) continuously produces about 21,000 GWt of heat. Wind and solar electricity generation contribute little to the world thermal power requirement. Due to emerging country expectations, a world wide dependable clean thermal power supply capacity of about 40,000 GWt will be required by the year 2070.

85) Present thermal neutron nuclear power reactors produce about 1400 GWt of heat. Even if tripling of that capacity is achieved by the year 2050, as envisaged by some present politicians, the total reactor thermal output will barely meet 15% of the 2050 thermal capacity requirement for fossil fuel displacement. There will be no climate mitigation. This is a reality that present politicians of all political stripes are unwilling to face.

86) There is also a nuclear fuel problem. Existing thermal neutron reactors harvest only 0.5% to 1% of the energy potentially available from natural uranium. Sustainable supply of the thermal power necessary for climate mitigation requires much more efficient Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs) and repeated fuel reprocessing. For basic reasons related to reactor physics those reactors must convert abundant U-238 into fissile Pu-239. Existing prohibitions regarding breeding and use of nuclear fuel containing plutonium must be abandoned.

87) A major benefit of repeated nuclear fuel reprocessing is elimination long lived radio isotopes from nuclear fuel waste. The remaining nuclear waste isotopes are short lived and naturally decay away in less than 300 years.

88) This fuel breeding reactor technology was initially developed in the USA and France during the period 1964 to 1994 and then was discarded due to exaggerated fears promoted by the fossil fuel industry lobby. As a result there will be a future life threatening shortage of Pu-239.

89) An important safety advantage of sodium cooled FNRs is that they operate at low pressure as compared to thermal neutron reactors that are cooled with high pressure water. At reactor operating temperatures sodium remains a safe low pressure liquid whereas water instantly flashes into high pressure steam. The main safety issue with sodium is exclusion of both air and water.

90) In order to finance construction of Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs), one must first have a certain source of FNR core fuel.

91) In Canada the only practical source of FNR core fuel is reprocessing of used CANDU fuel. In Ontario we have in storage 60,000 tonnes of used CANDU fuel, so there is nothing other than foolish government policy and regulation preventing us from reprocessing it to obtain FNR fuel.

92) The physics and chemistry of the required fuel recycling are well known. However, development of a safe fully automated hot nuclear fuel recycling facility of sufficient capacity to meet near term Canadian requirements will likely take 5 to 7 years from a standing start.
 

ADDRESSING THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
93) Both fuel reprocessing and reactor construction require regulatory reform. The concept that private industry should finance development of complex new regulations must be abandoned. In view of the developmental urgency we would be better off with engineered safety than with poorly implemented regulatory safety. Remember that many existing power reactors were built before the present regulatory framework even existed. Responsible engineers are not stupid.

94) It is essential that government decisions relating to nuclear mitigation of climate change be made by technically fully informed persons, not by politicians responding to public opinion polls.

95) Simply displacing existing fossil fuel use in Canada requires a total reactor capacity of about:
40,000,000 people X 10 kWt per person = 400 GWt.

96) If Canada is to reasonably take in another 40,000,000 people migrating from tropical countries the construction target becomes 800 GWt. This target is far beyond present Energy and Electrification Ministry planning which is only about 1 GWt / year for Ontario. At present we only have about 30 GWt of reactor capacity in Ontario.

97) A further constraint is residential accommodation. The present national residential construction capacity is about 235,000 residential housing units per year, which is insufficient for the projected immigration rate of about 1,000,000 people per year.
 

THE TECHNICAL SOLUTION
98) The combined capital requirements for nuclear power plants, buried district heating pipes, water source heat pumps and electricity system expansion sufficient to serve both existing and new accommodation are huge.

99) Preliminary engineering has shown that the largest reactor size suitable for urban installation for distributed district heating is about 1 GWt. The limiting factor is that it is impractical to install dedicated heating supply and return water mains larger than about four feet in diameter under most existing city streets.

100) A side elevation of a 1 GWt sodium cooled Fast Neutron Reactor is shown in Figure 5. Each such reactor can meet the entire energy needs of about 100,000 people.
 

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101)

SLIDE #13 - FIGURE 5 FNR Side Elevation

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Figure 5 - 1 GWt FNR Side Elevation

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102) This FNR features: an atmospheric pressure sodium pool, sodium fire suppression, passive setpoint temperature control, walk away safety, natural circulation of Na for long term reliability and sufficient natural circulation of the NaK heat transport fluid for fission product decay heat rejection.

103) The roof over the reactor space is designed to safely withstand the pressure difference caused by a major tornado directly overhead and to prevent penetration by man portable anti-tank weapons.

104) There are 8 heat exchange galleries outside the reactor space. Underneath the heat exchange galleries is space for argon storage bladders. These bladders allow constant pressure thermal expansion and contraction of the argon over the sodium pool.

105) The nuclear island has 1 m thick inner thermal wall, and a 1 m thick reinforced concrete outer wall stabilized by a shock wall and radial shear walls sufficient to safely absorb a low angle aircraft impact.

106) As shown in Figure 6 the footprint of this reactor and its adjacent support equipment is about one city block.
 

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107) SLIDE #14 - FIGURE 6 FNR Site Plan

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Figure 6 - FNR Site Plan

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108) Figure 6 shows the central nuclear island, surrounded by a 10 m wide laneway. The nuclear island is pipe connected below grade to 8 turbo-generator halls and 4 on-site cooling towers. The district heating pipes allow additional heat disposal via remote heat exchangers and remote cooling towers. Note that, including 20 m wide perimeter roads, the minimum facility footprint is (154 m X 154 m).

109) Electrical switchgear is located above the turbo-generator halls. The steam condensers are located below the turbogenerators.

110) Four radial lanes provide truck access to the four nuclear island airlocks and mobile crane access to the laneway around the nuclear island.

111) Support facilities for worker parking, sub-assembly storage, material storage, warehouses, offices, asembly, operation and maintenance must be nearby and will likely require the equivalent of another city block.
 

IMPLEMENTATION POLITICS
112) Due to 30 past years of political procrastination, realizing the required FNR deployment rate will likely also require further investment in Intense Neutron Generators to meet transition core fuel requirements.

113) The political thinking in other provinces is even more irrational than in Ontario. Recently Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, of which I am an alumnus, built an entire renewable energy facility with no provision for instructing students about sustainable nuclear power.

114) There is no simple solution to the matter of irrational anti-nuclear sentiment other than to force necessary changes in government. It is essential to change high school, college and university core curricula so that graduating students value and insist on rapid deployment of sustainable nuclear power. Then within few years their voting influence should be sufficient to force major public policy changes.
 

ELECTRICITY RATES
115) Motivating efficient use of clean energy by the public will require major changes in retail electricity rates and in wind and solar generator compensation. Consumers must learn that about 90% of clean electricity system costs are related to dependable capacity, not energy. Consumers must also appreciate the need for a preponderance of large synchronous generators with sufficient moment of inertia for grid frequency stabilization.

116) Wind and solar electricity generation via asynchronous generators, without massive energy storage, do not provide dependable capacity or grid frequency stabilization. However, wind and solar energy are suitable for limited applications, such as production of biofuels, production of the heavy water needed by CANDU reactors and production of the metallic sodium needed by FNRs.

117) Presently Ontario exports surplus clean electricity at about $0.01 / kWh instead of making surplus clean electricity supply capacity available to Ontario consumers for fossil fuel displacement and electrolytic hydrogen and sodium production. This foolish policy must change. The fossil fuel companies will object to this price competition, but so be it. If fossil fuel companies want to improve their return-on-investment they must invest their ill-gotten gains into maximizing production of clean power.
 

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118) SLIDE #15 - CONCLUSIONS I

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The time available for implementation of climate change mitigation
measures is only a few decades. In addition to the cost of nuclear
power capacity expansion the cost of managing climate migrants must also be met.

Present federal government led climate change mitigation policies are not
founded in physics, are ineffective and block effective provincial remedial action.

A fossil carbon tax is ineffective if a consumer does not have an
economic clean energy alternative.

Addressing climate change requires engineering leadership:
a) Climate change is a much more serious threat to public safety
than hypothetical nuclear accidents;
b) Investment in new fossil fuel infrastructure must stop;
c) Fossil fuel suppliers that fail to invest in sustainable nuclear power
must be bankrupted irrespective of pension plan consequences;
d) Corrupt and/or technically incompetent government and utility
decision makers must be terminated;
e) Governments must be guided by independent professional engineers,
not public opinion or ALARA (As Low As Reasonably Achievable) like regulations.
 

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119) SLIDE #16 - CONCLUSIONS II SLIDE

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There must be:
f) Ongoing resource allocation sufficient for timely mitigation
of climate change;
g) Electricity retail billing that reflects dependable capacity costs;
h) Electricity generator financial compensation that reflects both:
dependable capacity and energy provided;
i) Effective use of surplus clean interruptible power for fossil
fuel displacement and electrolytic chemical separation;
j) Reprocessing of used CANDU (thermal reactor) fuel to make
Fast Neutron Reactor (FNR) fuel;
k) Urban siting and deployment of low pressure FNRs;
l) Urban district heating and related planning,
building code and legislative changes;
m) Reprocessing of used FNR fuel;
n) Insolvency protection for nuclear assets.

The choice is binary. Either promptly accept all of these conditions
or accept near term thermal extinction.

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120) My final comment is that the primary responsibility of professional engineers is ensuring public safety. In this respect it is essential for both PEO and OSPE to bring truth to public discourse regarding CO2 accumulation, planetary albedo, climate change and the nuclear requirements for sustained climate change mitigation.

121) I have shown you that the only technology that can sustainably mitigate CO2 driven climate change is fuel breeding Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs). The only technology that can economically provide the required FNR start fuel is heavy water cooled and moderated CANDU reactors. Every day and every dollar that are spent doing something else threatens both your own future and the very existence of humanity.

122) Today in Canada we have a fossil fuel industry that in effect controls federal government energy policy, we have a federal government that blocks essential recycling of used CANDU fuel and we have a provincial government that prefers to burn natural gas rather than invest in additional nuclear power capacity.

123) We should do all necessary to make mitigation of climate change with sustainable nuclear power a ballot box issue in coming elections.

124) Today engineers have a binary choice. One can either be a leader and take effective action to mitigate climate change or one can fail to do so and become a victim of thermal extinction. Half measures that only slow the ongoing rise in the atmospheric CO2 concentration will only delay the inevitable.

125)Thank you for your attention.
 

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126) SLIDE #17 - QUESTIONS

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QUESTIONS?

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This web page last updated December 17, 2024.