Figure 1
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TITLE SLIDE
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Original presention to Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE)
September 19, 2024
Enhanced Presentation prepared November 14, 2024 - Takes about one hour
This presentation is available at:
https://www.xylenepower.com/Nuclear%20Mitigation%20of%20Climate%20Change%20V2.htm
This presentation quantifies the measures necessary to mitigate
CO2 driven climate change.
In this context "to mitigate" means to stop Earth's climate becoming more adverse.
Earth's climate will continue becoming more adverse until world CO2 emissions from
combustion of fossil fuels decrease at least 10 fold. Even after fossil CO2 emissions
cease centuries will pass before Earth's climate naturally returns to its pre-industrial
state.
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INTRODUCTION SLIDE
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CONSEQUENCES OF CO2 DRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGE:
| extreme high temperatures | prolonged drought | |
| uncontrolled wild fires | insect infestations | |
| winter road failure | permafrost melting | |
| loss of seasonal snow packs | lack of irrigation water | |
| flash floods | violent storms | |
| sea level rise | fish stock collapse | |
| high wet bulb temperature |
UNCONTROLLED HUMAN MIGRATION
In many countries climate change is more consequential than in Canada.
There is already uncontrolled human migration from low elevation tropical
countries into higher elevation temperate countries.
Each new migrant stresses existing accommodation, infrastructure
and public services.
PROCRASTINATION:
By failing to take climate change mitigation seriously political leaders and fossil
fuel promoters squandered Earth's former good climate. A fossil carbon tax
provides little climate benefit if consumers cannot access economic clean energy.
Continuing failure to mitigate climate change will eventually lead to a climate similar to
that during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) 56 million years ago. The adverse
climate during the PETM caused extinction of both large land animals and many marine species.
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1) There must be much better public and political appreciation of the enormity of the CO2 driven climate change problem and the measures necessary to mitigate it.
EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE:
2) In January 1970 a small book was published that summarized the results of accurate measurements of Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration made at Mona Loa, Hawaii during the period 1957 to 1969. As shown in Figure 1, these measurements indicate that Earth's average atmospheric CO2 concentration is rising every year.
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FIGURE ! - Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Versus Time**************************************************
Figure 1
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3) In 1970, it was immediately obvious that the continuing accumulation of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere would, within a few human generations, prevent continuing human existence on planet Earth. Quite apart from climate change, the CO2 concentration itself would eventually become toxic to humans. It is well known from submarine and manned spacecraft operating experience that in a closed system it is essential to continuously remove CO2 from the air. Most such systems are designed to keep the CO2 concnentration under 1000 ppm. At 10,000 ppm there are major human consequences and at 40,000 ppm there is 100% mortlity.
4) Continuous exposure to CO2 at a concentration greater than 1000 ppm is considered an unacceptable health risk.
5) The right hand side of Figure 1 shows that in recent years mankind has totally failed to slow the rate of increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration.
6) Analysis of glacier ice cores show that for many centuries prior to the industrial revolution the atmospheric CO2 concentration was stable at about 275 ppm. During the 1950s the atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 315 ppm. Presently the atmospheric CO2 concentration is about 425 ppm and is rising at about 2.5 ppm per year. The recent data trend indicates that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will reach 550 ppm by 2070, twice its stable historic value.
7) Interpreting this data is simple. Two hundred years ago, when Earth's population was about 1 billion people, natural processes could permanently remove CO2 from the atmosphere faster than mankind produced CO2 by combustion of fossil fuels (then primarily coal). However, today, as Earth's human population exceeds 8 billion, mankind produces CO2 more than 10X faster than natural processes can permanently remove it.
FACING REALITY
8) At this point I should point out that almost all government and fossil fuel industry claims with respect to projected CO2 emission rates and reductions are misleading NONSENSE. The only data that can be relied upon is actual atmospheric CO2 concentration measurements. Reducing the measured atmospheric CO2 concentration requires a sustained 20X reduction in the rates of fossil fuel extraction and fossil CO2 emission.
9) Building more fossil fuel infrastructure will not prevent further CO2 emission nor will storing compressed CO2 underground. The fundamental problem is that CO2 is a very low energy state chemical compound, In order to change CO2 into any stable form that is suitable for permanent storage requires additional energy.
10)The main means by which nature removes CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean rely on solar energy conveyed via photosynthesis. However, trees provide no permanent CO2 sequestration because when they decay they release their accumulated carbon back into the atmosphere.
11) The major long term natural CO2 removal processes are bio-matter growth that is then trapped in lake and swamp bottoms and shell forming ocean plankton. The trapped bio-matter eventually anaerobically decays into fossil fuels. After death Plankton shells sink to the bottom of the ocean forming sea bottom carbonate dust that eventually consolidates into carbonate rock. The common problem shared by these processes is that they rely on sunlight to provide the intermediate energy required for reforming CO2.
12) The rate at which nature removes excess CO2 from the atmosphere and ocean is photosynthesis limited and, even if fossil CO2 emissions are totally stopped, will take many centuries to restore Earth's former climate.
13) Today most of the CO2 produced by combustion of fossil fuels is either stored in the atmosphere, which raises the atmospheric CO2 concentration or is dissolved in the ocean, which lowers the ocean pH. Both of these interim storage processes have serious adverse life altering consequences.
14) Solving the atmospheric CO2 concentration problem requires complete halting of fossil fuel extraction. Parties who claim otherwise are simply burying their heads in the sand. Moreover, it is not sufficient to simply displace our own use of fossil fuels. We will not achieve atmospheric CO2 concentration reduction and hence climate mitigation unless we also stop fossil fuel extraction by less affluent parties in foreign lands. In this matter we must develop cost effective technologies for sustained complete fossil fuel displacement both at home and abroad. To plan for less is to plan to fail.
RADIATION PHYSICS:
15) Earth's climate is a result of physical processes involving a balance between partial absorption of solar radiation, heat accumulation and emission of thermal infrared radiation.
16) Planet Earth has been around for billions of years during which time planet Earth reached a balance between radiation absorption and radiant heat emission so that prior to the industrial revolution the temperature was stable and the net heat accumulation was zero. During the last century there has been a small increase in radiant energy absorption and a larger decrease in radiant heat emission, both of which have contributed to net heat accumulation.
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CONSERVATION OF ENERGY
(Net Heating Power) = (Absorbed solar power) - (Emitted infrared power)
and
(Incident solar power) = (Absorbed solar power) + (Reflected solar Power)
Combine these two euations to get:
(Absorbed solar power) = (incident solar power) - (Reflected solar power)
Thus (Net heating Power) = (Incident solar power) - (Reflected solar Power) - (Emitted Infrared Power)
orUsing modern satellite borne instruments we can accurately measure both A and the ratio: ************************************************* 17) The fundamental problem is that these two parameters are both decreasing with time causing net heat accumulation in the oceans and increasing ocean surface temperatures. In the tropics the ocean surface temperature is consistently well over 20 degrees C. At 35 degrees C people die because the humdity is so high that their bodies cannot cool by evaporating perspiration. 18) The increase in ocean surface temperature also drives violent storms. 19) Whether or not the human species survives this century will depend on whether or not humans are smart enough to deploy enough fuel sustainable nuclear power capacity to stop the gradual heat accumulation before the ocean temperature becomes overwhelmingly too hot. 20) Based on present human behavior, I am not optimistic. This issue is nowhere near the top of the political agenda. Too many people believe, perhaps for religious reasons, that humans can adapt to this climate change. These people do not understand the science, are fundamentally wrong, and they and their followers will simply become extinct. If you fail to act you will die with them. ALBEDO 21) A visible light photograph of Earth taken by an Apollo astronaught from deep space in 1972 is shown in Figure 2. **************************************************** FIGURE 2 ************************************************
Earth From Space Apollo 17 Dec. 1972
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22) Note the amount of optically highly reflective ice near the south pole and the lower reflectivity of both the ocean and dry land near Earth's equator. The reflected light is known as Earth Shine.
23) Precise measurements show that in 1999-2000 about:
A = 29.7%
of the incident solar energy was reflected. Notice that in the warm equatorial region there are few ice crystals resulting in lower local solar reflectivity (albedo) and higher local solar energy absorption whereas closer to the south pole the ice crystals are very dense causing higher local solar reflectivity and lower local solar energy absorption. Remember this latitude dependent ice crystal distribution. It is important.
CHANGE IN ALBEDO;
24) However, there is another important issue. Earth's temperature and heat accumulation are in part set by the fraction of absorbed solar radiation which up to this point we have assumed to be constant. As earlier indicated, about 29.7% of the incident solar radiation is presently reflected back into space. As is apparent in Figure 2 this reflected fraction of the incident solar radiation, known as planetary albedo, is dependent on the fraction of Earth's surface covered by ice. As the atmospheric temperature rises this ice will progressively melt starting at lower latitudes and gradually progressing toward higher latitudes. When all the ice hasmelted the projected increse in average temperatureis 17.2 degrees C. That is lethal for most large land animals.
25) As the ice melts the reflected fraction of incident solar power decreases causing the absorbed fraction of incident solar power to increase. In the long term this change in albedo caused by ice melting is an even bigger threat to mankind than the reduction in infrared radiant energy emission.
26) Remember that the 29.7% figure was an average over the entire Earths surface. The local value of albedo varies widely from about 4% over open ocean to as much as 70% over dry land covered by fresh snow. In places such as Canada, Russia and the nordic countries, where there is seasonal snow cover for (1 / 3) to (2 /3) of each year, a small change in average temperature caused by CO2 reults in a relaively large change in average local albbedo. In Canada this effect increases the change in average temperature 2X to 3X, which has had huge consequences on permafrost melting, tree species insect infestations and forest fires.
THERMAL INFRARED RADIATION
27) An isolated but powered object such as the filament of an incandescent light bulb will emit light (electromagnetic photons) which are tiny packets of energy. The mechanism of this photon creation is molecular and free electron downward energy transitions. Each photon propagates at the speed of light C and has a characteristic frequency F.
28) However, this process is reversible. That is, an external source of photons can excite free electrons and molecules to higher energies. Thus an isolated object in a vacuum chamber will emit and absorb photons until its rate of photon energy absorption equals its rate of photon energy emission, at which point we say that the object is at the same temperature as its surrounding vacuum chamber wall.
PHOTON PROPERTIES1c) The relationship between a photon's frequency F and the photon wave length is set out on:
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EQUATION SLIDE
1d) For each photon:
(wavelength) X (frequency F) = C = (known speed of light)
which is a constant.
Hence if the (photon frequency F) is known the (photon wave length) can be calculated and vice versa.
1e) The temperature of a warm object suspended in a vacuum gradually approaches the temperature of its surroundings by exchange of thermal radiation energy (photons) with its surroundings. As an object's temperature decreases the center frequency of its emitted photon spectrum decreases and the number of emitted photons decreases. A an object cools its emitted photons have progressively lower frequencies (longer wavelengths).
****************************************1f) A photon's energy Ep is given by:
Ep = h F
where:
h = 6.626 X 10^-34 joule second = Planck constant.
Hence if the photon frequency F is known the photon energy Ep can be calculated and vice versa.
Note that photons of higher frequency have higher energy than photons of lower frequency.
1g) A spectrometer is instrument that can graphically display a spectrum of emitted photon power versus photon frequency.
1h) Conservation of energy requires that:The area under a graph of emitted radiant power versus frequency is the total emitted radiant power.
the main mechanism by which planet Earth generates fphotons for emission into outer space is phase changes of water molecules.
Isolated water molecules (water vapor) have a lower molecular weight (H2O = 18) than either oxygen (O2 = 32) or nitrogen (N2 = 28) molecules and due to their relative buoyancy isolated H2O molecules tend to migrate upward in Earth's atmosphere. However, at about the cloud top level these water molecules join together to form liquid water. In so doing they emit photons that convey the latent heat of voporization of water toward outer space. In clouds the water droplets often further emit photons to become ice particles. These photons convey the latent heat of fusion of water into outer space.
At the instants of the energy transitions the water molecules have variable initial and final energies. Hence the emitted photons occupy a band of frequencies.
However, inter molecular collisions tend to keep most of the molecules at a particular altitude at about the same temperature (same kinetic energy per molecule). The probability of molecule having a very much higher or vary much lower temperature is quite small.
The result is that most of the emitted photons are within a band of energies that is characteristic of the available molecular energy states and temperatures at the points of emission.
As shown earlier herein, a photon's frequency is proportional to its energy, so we can tell a lot about what is going on in earth's atmosphere by using spacecraft to record the actual infrared photon spectrum emitted by planet Earth.
There is a further complication. Between the tops of clouds, where most ot the emitted photons are formed and deep space is Earth's upper atmophere which contains CO2. At a frequency band right in the middle of the H2O thermal emission is the CO2 frequency band that reflects infrared radiation in the CO2 band back toward Earth.
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Figure 3 - 1996 Thermal Emission of Planet Earth***************************************************
Figure 3
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1i) Figure 3 shows both the experimentally measured thermal emission spectral curve and two theoretical Planck curves for planet Earth. A Planck curve shows the theoretical infrared emission from an ideal blackbody. Notice that as the temperature increases the peak in the Planck curves moves upward and to the right toward higher frequencies. That behavior corresponds to every day experience where the hotter an object is the more heat that it emits.
1j) Notice that on Figure 3 the horizontal axis is labelled Wave Number.
(Wave Number) = (Frequency) / (Speed of Light).
As shown on the EQUATIONS slide Wave Number is just the frequency F divided by the constant speed of light C.
1k) EQUATIONS SLIDE
GREEN HOUSE GAS WARMING:
2f) Consider a planet that is constantly heated by absorbed solar radiation. Assume that the planet has existed for millions of years, so that its internal temperaure profile is stable. Then conservation of energy requires that the planet emit a thermal radiation power equal to its absorbed solar power.
2g) During the 1920s early high resolution spectrometers were used to examine light emitted by the sun, stars and various radiation sources here on Earth. Some of these spectra exhibited dark lines at certain photon frequencies, corresponding to something preventing photon transmission at those frequencies.
2h) It was found that for each gas there are characteristic photon frequencies at which the gas molecules reflect incident electromagmetic radiation back toward the radiation source. From the perspective of a distant spectrometer this back reflection produces dark lines on the apparent photon emission spectrum.
2i) The spectrum of a planet's emitted thermal radiation can be recorded by a far infrared spectrometer mounted in a spacecraft.
2j) If the planet has no atmosphere its thermal emission spectrum is similar to a Planck curve. The area under this curve is equal to the absorbed solar power.
2k) Now assume that the Earth has added to its atmosphere gases that in certain frequency bands reflect backwards thermal infrared photons. From the perspective of an observer in outer space Earth's thermal infrared emission spectrum will have corresponding dark bands.
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FIGURE 3
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2l) Refer again to Figure 3. Note the CO2 related notch in the emitted thermal infrared emission spectrum.
2m) Figure 3
2n) The immediate effect of a GHG indu dark bands is to reduce the area under the radiated power versus frequency curve which means an immediate reduction in emitted thermal power.
2o) However, the Law of Conservation of energy requires that over dry land the total area under the graph of the emitted photon power versus frequency be equal to the absorbed solar power, which is independent of the concentration of gases added to the atmosphere.
2p) This apparent contradiction is resolved by the excess solar energy flux raising Earth's surface temperature, which moves the entire emitted infrared photon power versus frequency curve upwqrds until the area under this curve again matches the absorbed solar power.
2q) In summary, atmospheric gases that reflect photons at thermal infrared frequencies cause an increase in Earth's surface temperature. Such gases are known as "Green House Gases (GHGs)" and the corresponding increase in temperature is known as the "Green House Effect".
VENUS
3) Circa 1960 the large steerable radio telescope at Jodrell bank in the UK was pointed at the planet Venus. On the basis of radio telescope data UK astrophysicists concluded that the surface of Venus is very hot (> 600 degrees K) due to the "greenhouse effect" caused by CO2 in the atmosphere of Venus.
4) During the mid 1960s the USA and USSR sent multiple space probes to Venus. These probes confirmed that the Venus atmosphere is primarily CO2 and that due to the greenhouse effect the surface temperature of Venus is very high.
5) The measured surface temperature of Venus lies in the range 460 C at night to 474 C during the day, far larger than the 15 degrees C typically experienced on Earth.
EARTH
11) Knowledgeable parties in the USA became concerned about the possible Earth climate implications of the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. In the mid 1970s the USA used several low orbit satellites to record the basic thermal infrared spectrum of planet Earth. I use the word basic because thermal infrared spectrometers require cryogenic cooling and in a primitive satellite environment the cryogenic coolant, usually liquid argon, liquid helium or liquid nitrogen, quickly boiled away. Hence these observations were limited to a few low Earth orbits.
12) Using the basic satellite recorded Earth IR emission spectrum, in 1979 the US Academy of Sciences reported to then US president Jimmy Carter that doubling of Earth's atmospheric CO2 concentration from its historic value of 275 ppm to a future value of 550 ppm would by itself cause an average temperature increase over dry land of about 5 degrees F (3 degrees C).
FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY DENIAL:
13) By 1980 early thermal neutron nuclear power reactors had been field proven and around the world about 400 such power reactors were either committed or built with a total thermal output of about 1200 GWt.
14) Circa 1985 the fossil fuel industry realized that nuclear power was an existential threat to fossil fuel energy market share and attempted to make nuclear power economically unviable by lobbying governments in both Canada and the USA. This lobbying took the form of public scare tactics, unreasonable regulation of nuclear power, funding of political parties that promoted use of fossil fuels in preference to nuclear power and dissemination of falsehoods about climate change and nuclear energy.
15) In response to the fossil fuel industry lobby, during the 1990s the USA adopted a pro-fossil fuel policy, in which parties who challenged that policy with contrary facts had their employment terminated. One of the worst offenders was Bill Clinton, who changed clean air laws and who terminated the highly successful multi-billion dollar US fast breeder reactor development program. Similar politics occurred in France. Today the main beneficiaries of that US development program are Russia, China and to a lesser extent, India.
SCIENCE TO THE RESCUE:
16) Some of the scientists at US NASA were not deterred by the then foolish and misguided US federal government policy. In November 1996 they sent a unique spacecraft toward Mars. This spacecraft, known as the Mars Global Surveyor, had on board its own continuously operating cryogenic refrigeration system that allowed it to precisely record thermal infra red spectra. In my view the most important spectrum that it recorded was from planet Earth, not Mars. This spectrum is shown in Figure 4.
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FIGURE 4*****************************
Figure 3
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17) Please take a moment to carefully study Figure 3. The horizontal axis, labelled Wavenumber, is the infrared photon frequency divided by the speed of light. The black line is a graph of the received infrared power as a function of wavenumber or frequency. The area under the black line is proportional to the total thermal infrared power emitted by Earth. On the left hand side of this graph the received infrared power is partially suppressed by water vapor in Earth's atmosphere. In the middle of this graph is the large notch due to CO2 in Earth's atmosphere. That notch is wider today because this data was acquired in 1996 and there has been further CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere since then.
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FIGURE 4*************************
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18) In 2005 another spacecraft recorded the higher resolution thermal infrared emission spectrum for planet Earth shown in Figure 4
Figure 5
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EQUATION SLIDE
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19) With reference back to the EQUATION SLIDE
The corresponding H2O molecular energy transitions due to vapor condensation and ice crystal formation are in the range 0.037 eV to 0.155 eV.
22) Let me summarize this whole matter bluntly. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is 425 ppm today. At 2.5 ppm per year it will reach 550 ppm in:
125 ppm / (2.5 ppm / year) = 50 years.
23) If present fossil fuel use trends continue that 2.5 ppm per year rise in CO2 concentration will gradually increase to about 5 ppm per year, reducing the CO2 concentration rise time to about 33 years. If you fail to act now, in about 33 years time the average temperature over much of Canada will be 6 to 9 degrees C higher than the preindustrial reference. If you think that we have a wildfire problem now, you have seen nothing yet.
*********************** MATH SLIDE *********************24) The accompanying MATH SLIDE shows how Earth's temperature T is affected by the changing atmospheric CO2 concentration and the changing albedo A. This calculation shows that melting of all the highly reflective ice will cause an extinction of large land animals, including humans.
25) There is another important CO2 effect that has received little explicit public recognition. When CO2 is added to the atmosphere over dry land the land surface temperature almost immediately rises to make the infrared (IR) power emission balance the solar power absorption. Hence there is little heat absorption by dry land.
26) However, when CO2 is added to the atmosphere over ocean water there is little immediate water temperature rise but there is ongoing heat absorption by the water equal to the difference between the solar radiant power flux and the infrared radiant power flux. This net heat absorption melts floating ice and leads to gradual ocean warming that in turn raises the wet bulb temperature and enables major ocean storms.
27) In the near term a major consequence of the temperature rise will be massive human migration from the tropics toward more temperate countries. Already the USA and Europe are not able to control immigration via their southern borders and the situation will become much worse during the decades to come. I remind you that desperate people do desperate things. From a moral perspective tropical residents believe that they have been wronged by the developed world's unbridled use of fossil fuels, so from their perspective you deserve whatever they do to you.
28) Today you have a binary choice. You can either be a leader and take effective action to mitigate climate change or you can fail to do so and become a victim of thermal extinction. Half measures that do not actually prevent further rises in the atmospheric CO2 concentration will only delay the inevitable.
THE NUCLEAR SOLUTION
36) Today world wide combustion of fossil fuels (natural gas, natural gas liquids, oil, coal) continuously produces about 21,000 GWt of heat. Wind and solar electricity generation contribute little to the world thermal power requirement. Due to emerging country expectations, a world wide dependable clean thermal power supply capacity of about 40,000 GWt will be required by the year 2070.
37) Present thermal neutron nuclear power reactors produce about 1400 GWt of heat. Even if tripling of that capacity is achieved by the year 2050, as envisaged by some present politicians, the total reactor thermal output will barely meet 15% of the 2050 thermal capacity requirement for fossil fuel displacement. There will be no climate mitigation. This is a reality that present politicians of all political stripes are unwilling to face.
38) There is also a nuclear fuel problem. Existing thermal neutron reactors harvest only 0.5% to 1% of the energy potentially available from natural uranium. Sustainable supply of the thermal power necessary for climate mitigation requires much more efficient Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs) and repeated fuel reprocessing. For basic reasons related to reactor physics those reactors must convert abundant U-238 into fissile Pu-239. Existing prohibitions regarding breeding and use of nuclear fuel containing plutonium must be abandoned.
39) A major benefit of repeated nuclear fuel reprocessing is elimination long lived radio isotopes from nuclear fuel waste. The remaining nuclear waste isotopes are short lived and naturally decay away in less than 300 years.
40) This fuel breeding reactor technology was developed in the USA and France during the period 1964 to 1994 and then was discarded due to exaggerated fears promoted by the fossil fuel industry lobby.
41) An important safety advantage of sodium cooled FNRs is that they operate at low pressure as compared to thermal neutron reactors that are cooled with high pressure water. At reactor operating temperatures sodium remains a safe low pressure liquid whereas water instantly flashes into high pressure steam.
42) In order to finance construction of Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs), one must first have a certain source of FNR core fuel.
43) In Canada the only practical source of FNR core fuel is reprocessing of used CANDU fuel. In Ontario we have 60,000 tonnes of used CANDU fuel, so there is nothing other than foolish government policy and regulation preventing us from recycling it to obtain FNR fuel.
44) The physics and chemistry of the required fuel recycling are well known. However, development of a safe fully automated hot nuclear fuel recycling facility of sufficient capacity to meet near term Canadian requirements will likely take 5 to 7 years from a standing start.
ADDRESSING THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
45) Both fuel reprocessing and reactor construction require regulatory reform. The concept that private industry should finance development of complex new regulations must be abandoned. In view of the developmental urgency we would be better off with engineered safety than with poorly implemented regulatory safety. Remember that many existing power reactors were built before the present regulatory framework even existed. Responsible engineers are not stupid.
46) It is essential that government decisions relating to nuclear mitigation of climate change be made by technically fully informed persons, not by politicians responding to public opinion polls.
47) Simply displacing existing fossil fuel use in Canada requires a total reactor capacity of about:
40,000,000 people X 10 kWt per person = 400 GWt.
48) If Canada is to reasonably take in another 40,000,000 people migrating from tropical countries the construction target becomes 800 GWt. This target is far beyond present Energy and Electrification Ministry planning which is only about 1 GWt / year for Ontario. At present we only have about 30 GWt of reactor capacity in Ontario.
49) A further constraint is residential accommodation. The present national residential construction capacity is about 235,000 residential housing units per year, which is insufficient for the projected immigration rate of about 1,000,000 people per year.
THE TECHNICAL SOLUTION
50) The combined capital requirements for nuclear power plants, buried district heating pipes, water source heat pumps and electricity system expansion sufficient to serve both existing and new accommodation are huge.
51) Preliminary engineering has shown that the largest reactor size suitable for urban installation for distributed district heating is about 1 GWt. The limiting factor is that it is impractical to install dedicated heating supply and return water mains larger than about four feet in diameter under most existing city streets.
52) A side elevation of a 1 GWt sodium cooled Fast Neutrron Reactor is shown in Figure 4. Each such reactor can meet the entire energy needs of about 100,000 people.
53) 
Figure 4 - 1 GWt FNR Side Elevation
54) This FNR features: an atmospheric pressure sodium pool, sodium fire suppression, passive setpoint temperature control, walk away safety, natural circulation of Na for long term reliability and sufficient natural circulation of the NaK heat transport fluid for fission product decay heat rejection.
55) The roof over the reactor space is designed to safely withstand the pressure difference caused by a major tornado directly overhead and to prevent penetration by man portable anti-tank weapons.
56) There are 8 heat exchange galleries outside the reactor space. Underneath the heat exchange galleries is space for argon storage bladders. These bladders allow constant pressure thermal expansion and contraction of the argon over the sodium pool.
57) The nuclear island has 1 m thick inner thermal wall, and a 1 m thick reinforced concrete outer wall stabilized by a shock wall and radial shear walls sufficient to safely absorb a low angle aircraft impact.
58) As shown in Figure 5 the footprint of this reactor and its adjacent support equipment is about one city block.
59) 
Figure 5- FNR Site Plan
60) Figure 5 shows the central nuclear island, surrounded by a 10 m wide laneway. The nucleaar island is pipe connected below grade to 8 turbo-generator halls and 4 corner cooling towers. The district heating pipes allow additional heat disposal via remote heat exchangers and remote cooling towers. Note that, including 20 m wide perimeter roads, the facility footprint is (154 m X 154 m).
61) Electrical switchgear is located above the turbo-generator halls.
62) Four radial lanes provide truck access to the four nuclear island airlocks.
63) Support facilities for parking, sub-assembly storage, material storage, offices, construction, operation and maintenance must be nearby and will likely require about the equivalent of another city block.
IMPLEMENTATION POLITICS
64) Due to 30 past years of political procrastination, realizing the required FNR deployment rate will likely also require further investment in Intense Neutron Generators to meet transition core fuel requirements.
65) The political thinking in other provinces is even more irrational than in Ontario. Recently Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, of which I am an alumnus, built an entire renewable energy facility with no provision for instructing students about sustainable nuclear power.
66) There is no simple solution to this matter other than to force necessary changes in government. It is essential to change high school, college and university core curricula so that graduating students value and demand rapid deployment of sustainable nuclear power. Then within few years their voting influence should be enough to force major public policy changes.
ELECTRICITY RATES
67) Motivating efficient use of clean energy by the public will require major changes in retail electricity rates and in wind and solar generator compensation. Consumers must learn that about 90% of clean electricity system costs are related to dependable capacity, not energy. Consumers must also appreciate the need for a preponderance of synchronous generators with sufficient moment of inertia for grid frequency stabilization.
68) Wind and solar electricity generation, without massive energy storage, provide no dependable capacity. However, wind and solar energy are suitable for limited applications, such as production of biofuels, production of the heavy water needed by CANDU reactors and production of the metallic sodium needed by FNRs.
69) Presently Ontario exports surplus clean electricity at about $0.01 / kWh instead of making surplus clean electricity supply capacity available to Ontario consumers for fossil fuel displacement and hydrogen production. This foolish policy must change. The fossil fuel companies will object to this price competition, but so be it. If fossil fuel companies want to improve their return-on-investment they must invest their ill-gotten gains into production of sustainable nuclear power.
CONCLUSIONS:
72) My final comment is that the primary responsibility of professional engineers is ensuring public safety. In this respect it is essential for both PEO and OSPE to bring truth to public discourse regarding CO2 accumulation, planetary albedo, climate change and the requirements for climate change mitigation.
73) I have shown you that the only technology that can sustainably mitigate CO2 driven climate change is fuel breeding Fast Neutron Reactors (FNRs). The only technology that can economically provide the required FNR start fuel is heavy water cooled and moderated CANDU reactors. Every day and every dollar that are wasted doing something else threatens both your own future and the very existence of humanity.
74) Today in Canada we have a fossil fuel industry that in effect controls federal government energy policy, we have a federal government that blocks essential recycling of used CANDU fuel and we have a provincial government that prefers to burn natural gas rather than invest in additional nuclear power capacity.
75) We should do all necessary to make mitigation of climate change with sustainable nuclear power a ballot box issue in coming elections.
76)Thank you for your attention.
77) QUESTIONS?
This web page last updated November 15, 2024.
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